News.Kyiv.Me.

With the separatists near defeat, will Putin cross the Rubicon?

Commentary

With Ukrainian troops making steady gains against pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin [Unlink] has come under pressure to intervene to tip the balance in favor of the insurgents.

The next few weeks, or days, would reveal the extent of Putin’s resolve to keep eastern Ukraine in the Russian orbit.

Ukrainian troops have recently achieved a major headway in the military offensive against the pro-Russian separatists, having encircled them in a shrinking enclave around Luhansk and Donetsk in preparation for a final assault.

According to Bloomberg, there are about 15,000 separatist fighters in the rebel enclaves of Luhansk and Donetsk. The Associated Press reports that Igor Girkin, a top commander of the pro-Russian insurgents in eastern Ukraine, said Saturday that Ukrainian forces have captured strategic towns and surrounded Donetsk.

The insurgency in southeastern Ukraine has thus reached a stage where it will fail without new escalating intervention by Russia. Putin will have to decide very soon whether to make a move that could dramatically deescalate the conflict or escalate it.

Although Moscow continues issuing denials, Western officials have recently raised alarm that Putin appears to be mulling over a decision to send Russian troops into Ukraine to relieve the besieged separatist forces.

The growing concern, based on the recent rhetoric and statements from Moscow and the intensified fighting around Luhansk and Donetsk, is that Putin is seeking a “peacekeeping” excuse to stage a military invasion.

His government has recently been loudly calling for a humanitarian mission to eastern Ukraine. It is feared that in desperation Putin could decide to abandon his stealth approach in favor of open military intervention under the guise of a humanitarian mission.

Western officials understand clearly that Putin would relish an excuse to throw away the cover of his stealth and launch a “peacekeeping operation” in eastern Ukraine.

The aim of Putin’s stealth war thus far has been to force Kyiv to grant political and administrative autonomy to eastern Ukraine. But with the backing and support of Western countries Kyiv has mounted a successful military offensive to win back the region from the Russian-backed separatist forces.

Fears that Putin is considering the option of direct military intervention in eastern Ukraine is strengthened by intelligence reports that he has amassed about 20,000 troops at the Russia-Ukraine border.

According to Bloomberg, Andriy Lysenko, a Ukrainian military spokesman, said Russia has stationed in Crimea and along the border with Ukraine about “45,000 troops, 160 tanks, 1,360 armored vehicles, 192 warplanes, 137 military helicopters, artillery and rocket launchers.”

Western officials say the Russian forces include the complement of units needed to stage a large-scale invasion of Ukraine if Putin gives the order.

Suspicions about Russia’s intentions prompted Samantha Power, the US Ambassador to the UN, to deliver a warning at a Security Council meeting Friday that the West would consider any Russian intervention in Ukraine, under the pretext of humanitarian aid mission, an invasion.

Speaking to reporters Wedenesday in Stuttgart, Germany, the US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel [Unlink] also voiced concerns about the increasing risk of Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine.

He said that US intelligence supported the assessment by the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk [Unlink] that Russia is preparing for a ground invasion of eastern Ukraine. He said that the threat from Russia is forcing the NATO alliance to review its structure in preparation for a possible confrontation with Russia.

Will Putin invade Ukraine?

Putin has demanded federalization of Ukraine so that the southeastern region of the country, which has close historical and cultural ties with Russia, could enjoy autonomy, especially in matters of foreign policy.

Putin hopes that a federal constitution for Ukraine would allow Russia to prevent Ukraine from going along with Kyiv’s policy of integrating with the West through membership of the European Union and possibility the NATO military alliance.

While Russian strategists have reasons to believe the West would not intervene militarily in eastern Ukraine in response to Russian invasion, they know that an invasion will provoke harsh economic measures that could spell doom to the already fragile Russian economy.

Although his success in annexing Crimea and fomenting rebellion in eastern Ukraine has helped to push his approval rating at home to new heights, Putin and his advisers would have to consider the risk that further downturn in the Russian economy due to sanctions could cause his approval rating to take a plunge and even lead to the collapse of his regime.

In taking a decision he would have to weigh the interaction of short- and long-term goals.

The fear of a backlash is sufficient reason why Putin should prefer to maintain his current stealth intervention policy and avoid direct military intervention. Despite fears that Putin would invade it seems more likely that he would steeply discount the cost and thus back down on his threat. Yet being anxious to maintain his carefully cultivated “tough leader” image he would seek ways to save face.

The fact that he could find other means to harass the Ukrainian state and foment instability increases the chances that he would resist the temptation to resort to naked aggression. For instance, he could try to shore up the resistance by stepping up military aid hoping that Ukrainian troops would get mired in an unending urban guerilla struggle with the separatists.

But the recent statement by Girkin that the separatists are ready for a ceasefire could mean they have despaired of success and ready to negotiate surrender. However, it could be a way of putting pressure on Russia to intervene.

Lastly, Putin has the option of intensifying the economic war against Ukraine. For instance, he could cut off gas supplies in the winter months and employ other means to put Kyiv under unbearable economic pressure hoping that in the short to long term of an economic war of attrition, Ukraine would succumb to the Russian demand for federalization.