Ukraine’s fragile cease-fire seems to be holding
MOSCOW — Ukraine’s fragile cease-fire took hold Saturday, as a nation worn down by nearly five months of war paused to consider a future in which Kyiv might have radically less control over its eastern industrial heartland.
A day after envoys from Kyiv and pro-Russian rebels signed an agreement to lay down arms temporarily in the hopes of finding a durable peace, representatives from both sides said that the fighting, which had become far bloodier in recent weeks, had mostly quieted. Each side accused the other of scattered violations, but the general sense was that the immediate situation had calmed even if stark disagreements remained about the future of the territories seized by rebels.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s telephone diplomacy last week helped hammer out the temporary truce deal, and on Saturday they spoke by telephone about how the cease-fire was holding up. Both sides agreed that the deal was “generally” being upheld, according to statements released by each leader, and they also discussed facilitating the delivery of humanitarian assistance to the war-torn regions of eastern Ukraine, the next step of the cease-fire along with a prisoner swap.
But there was no mention by either president about the long-term future of the rebel-held territories, a reminder of the tenuousness of the peace. At a NATO summit in Wales where the Russia-Ukraine conflict was first on the agenda, Poroshenko on Friday offered more political and cultural autonomy for eastern Ukraine. But his offer, though it was short on specifics, was similar to one made in June that was rejected by the rebels.
The Kremlin and the rebels have pushed for, at minimum, vastly more political and economic independence for eastern Ukraine. Because of the region’s historical cultural and business ties to Russia, that would give the Kremlin far more say in Ukraine’s national destiny than many in Kyiv would be comfortable with.
And some rebel leaders on Friday said they would be satisfied with nothing less than full independence. That, Poroshenko said Saturday, would be a non-starter.
“I am ready to fight for my country, and I am sure a huge number of Ukrainian residents think the same. The territorial integrity, sovereignty, and independence of Ukraine will remain as they are,” Poroshenko wrote on Facebook.
Parliamentary elections scheduled for Oct. 26 make concessions particularly difficult for Poroshenko, since any deal that would in effect freeze the conflict on the ground would be unpopular among the president’s base of supporters.
Fears have been growing that Ukraine’s leadership’s decision to agree to truce amounted to a calculation that its forces could simply not withstand the recent offensive in the region backed up by what NATO says are trained Russian troops.
“The Ukrainian government has to explain to its own nation exactly what is happening, and it hasn’t done so yet,” said Konstantin Batozsky, an advisor to Serhiy Taruta, the Kyiv-appointed governor of Donetsk. He said the region had been mostly quiet on Saturday, but that many residents were highly skeptical that the cease fire would hold.
“The people of Ukraine will not accept peace at any price,” he said.
In a measure of the low international expectations about the durability of the peace, the European Union meanwhile, readied sanctions against Russia that it was due to approve on Monday. The fresh measures would target the energy, finance and defense industries, along with more individuals. E.U. leaders said this week that the sanctions could be rolled back if the truce holds.
Those plans met Saturday with a sharp rejoinder from the Russian Foreign Ministry, which said in a statement that the European Union is “sending a signal of direct support to the party of war in Kyiv,” meaning those who favor renewing Ukraine’s assault on the rebels.
A Ukrainian military spokesman said that no Ukrainian soldiers had been killed since the cease fire took hold at 6 p.m. local time Friday. There had been minor skirmishes, Col. Andriy Lysenko said, with pro-Russian forces firing on Ukrainian positions at least 10 times after the cease-fire. Rebel leaders accused Ukrainian forces of roughly the same number of engagements.
In addition, the International Red Cross, in a tweet, said that shelling on Saturday in rebel-controlled territory forced an aid convoy destined for Luhansk to turn back. The organization did not say which side was doing the firing.
Faiola reported from Kyiv, Ukraine.
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