Ukraine Crisis And East-West Rift – OpEd
The crisis in Ukraine is believed to be the worst crisis in the post Cold War era that has brought the traditional west and East to the threshold of war. The crisis in Ukraine cannot be seen in isolation from the great power politics. Involvement of great powers makes the state of affairs in Ukraine worthy of serious attention.
Ukraine came into limelight when a series of protests erupted in Kyiv’s Independence Maidan that demanded the end of the rule of the then president, Victor Yanukovich. Victor Yanukovich was elected as president of the country after he won the elections in 2010. He is believed to be a confidant of Kremlin, its powerful and erstwhile soviet master. Protesters thronged the streets of Kyiv in response to the government’s turning down of a proposal to join European Union.
The government quashed the demand of the protesters to relinquish power and used firepower to disperse them. The protesters, on the other hand, were believed to be succoured by the European states and the U.S. After weeks of unrest and killing of dozens of civilians, the EU Foreign Ministers and Ukrainian government reached an agreement on February 21 in which Yanukovich accepted the demands of protesters to relinquish power. Despite achieving an agreement, the protesters continued to occupy the Capital City and eventually made Victor Yanukovich flee to Russia with a transition government in place.
Russia, sitting next to the crisis-fraught Ukraine, had been observing every development patiently. Crimea, the eastern part of Ukraine yields immense importance for Russia because it has been the seat of its Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. When its confidant in Kyiv was deposed, Kremlin, alarmed by the developments, sent its troops to Crimea after the Russian Parliament gave its ascent to Putin. Western European countries and U.S censured Russia’s activities in Crimea. However, Crimea’s majority population that is Russian have been calling for Moscow’s help in the face of rightist movement’s grab of power in Kyiv.
Conflicting views and claims from both US and Russian leaders over the crisis in Ukraine made the issue more problematic. Russia denied the legitimacy of the transition government in Kyiv while U.S, France and Germany threatened Russia to leave Crimea. U.S and Western European States imposed sanctions on certain Russian officials who were involved in Crimea.
Now after the Crimean referendum on March 16 that resulted in 94% of Crimeans voting to secede from Ukraine and join Russia, the situation in the region has further become complex. Russia is yet to formally annex the geopolitically important peninsula after the latter’s formal decision to join the Russian federation. The West-imposed embargoes have so far been failed to change Putin’s mind to leave the future of Crimea be decided by the transition government in Kyiv.
With Crimea under its sway, it is likely that Russia would not expand its boundaries to other eastern parts of Ukraine. Similarly, U.S and its allies would likely to remain content, amid continuing condemnation of Putin, with Crimea within the Russian borders.
American Sanctions and European Trade dependence on Russia
Despite a strategic patience on part of Western leaders regarding Russia’s role in Ukraine, However, US and EU have come up with Unilateral Sanctions to punish Russia. US imposed sanctions on several Russian top military and civilian officials believed to have played a critical role in Crimea by freezing their assets in and imposing a ban on their travel to United States.
Some of the EU states have favoured US-engineered sanctions and have proposed sanctions of their own. France and UK are the only powerful members of EU that have taken an acerbic stance on Russia’s role in Crimea. There seems to be a rift between some EU states and US over the steps to be taken in order to stop Russia. Germany, the most powerful and with the robust economy within EU, is found reluctant to follow a strategy to isolate Russia by imposing sanctions on it. Germany, economic powerhouse of Europe, is a key country in European Union and it has deep ties with Russia. Germany is the 11th largest export market for Russian products after Poland. Russia exports oil and gas to Germany and in return import from it expensive cars, manufactured products and machine tools. In case of imposition of embargoes, Germany would be more affected than any other European country.
Russia, on the other hand, is also dependent on Europe to find its products an appropriate market. Given this dependence, neither will Germany support imposition of sanctions nor will Russia extend its troops beyond Crimea. However, it is not likely that the West would be able to reverse Russia’s decision to annex Crimea.
The West will continue to live by Crimea under Russian suzerainty.
Conclusion
Annoyed by Russia’s adventure in Crimea, the members of G-7 held a meeting without Russia. Unlike the G-7 meeting, Russia participated in the most recent Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague where 53 countries participated. Despite having serious differences over Crimea between Russia and Western leaders, a joint communiqué was reached at the end of the summit that was endorsed by both. Russia’s presence in the summit is illustrative of the fact that West has not isolated Russia and still takes it a partner in settling important international issues that threaten international peace. Russia will continue to play its role in international diplomacy.
About the author:
*Muhammad Maqbool Aslam Lashari is a student of M.Phil in the School of Politics and International Relations Quaid e Azam University Islamabad Pakistan