Timothy Spangler: Ukraine’s brief social-media coup
Timothy Spangler: Ukraine’s brief social-media coup
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Ten Russian paratroopers were captured this past week in eastern Ukraine, approximately 15 miles from the border with Russia. The incident gives Kyiv further evidence of Moscow’s continuing support of the separatist forces. The arrests occurred on the same day Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko met for the first time in many months.
Awkward!
Although Moscow has adamantly denied any involvement in the unrest in Ukraine, Kyiv is convinced that Russian soldiers are fighting alongside the local forces, disguising themselves and their military equipment when needed. Until now, Ukrainian officials made due with accusations. Now, they have actual captured soldiers to put on display. And put them on display they did – by way of a post on one of the government’s Facebook pages.
Moscow has downplayed the incident, claiming that these particular soldiers entered Ukraine “accidently” at a part of the border that was not clearly marked. Could have happened to anyone, really! But Kyiv was not buying the “wrong turn” explanation, insisting that the Russian soldiers were sent into the country as part of a definitive military plan. Gaining further territory in Ukraine would be useful to Moscow in order to provide additional land access to the recently annexed Crimea.
In recent weeks, Kyiv-backed forces, including a number of independent militias raised by private individuals, have gained the momentum in the disputed eastern region of the country, although separatists continue to resist efforts by the central government to exert control over their Russian-speaking enclaves.
According to NATO’s Secretary General Anders Rasmussen, the Russian military has been actively supporting the separatists from within Ukraine. Although Ukraine is not a NATO member, several members sit on the borders of Russia or Ukraine, causing concern for the military alliance. NATO members are meeting in Britain next week, and security in this region is sure to be a high priority, as well as how to best keep Russia in check.
What are the long-term consequences of Russian incursions into Ukraine? Will these escapades embolden Putin to cast a covetous eye on other former Soviet territories that could fit nicely within a newly assertive and expansionistic Russia?
Clearly, peace is still a long way away for many Ukrainians. Ambiguities over last winter’s coup in Kyiv and questions over the legitimacy of the current government provide ample space for separatists to rally support. Poroshenko took the risky, although anticipated, decision of dissolving Parliament in order to gain an edge in the snap elections that must now follow. He claims that supporters of deposed President Viktor Yanukovich held too much power in the current Parliament and had to be replaced.
Given the run of successes that Putin has enjoyed recently on the diplomatic front, it is unsurprising that we find the Kremlin emboldened to assert its interests in different quarters. Washington and other Western capitals seem unable to gain an upper hand when dealing with Moscow, and the cumulative effects of these shortfalls could lead to seismic changes in the balance of powers in coming years.
Both Putin and Poroshenko were in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, on the day the Russian solders were captured, in the midst of negotiations involving the European Union and the recently established Eurasian Customs Union. Despite claims from both sides that peace is their mutual goal, the death toll in the region continues to mount. According to U.N. estimates, more than 2,000 people have died since fighting first began four months ago.
Until there is certainty about the intentions of the new leaders in Kyiv and a broad-based consensus that Ukraine is on the right track, it will be difficult to re-establish stability in the country. The annexation of the formerly Ukrainian Crimea has been accepted by the international community as a “done deal.” Putin has suffered few consequences from his bold land grab. Questions of Russian involvement in the unrest in eastern Ukraine are more contentious. Sanctions were imposed in recent weeks, but it is still highly uncertain whether these sanctions will be enough to put Russia on notice that further assertions of national interest will result in unacceptable consequences.
Interestingly, earlier in the week, pro-Russian separatists appeared to have the upper hand when they forced Ukrainian prisoners of war to march through the rebel-controlled city of Donetsk on a date celebrated as the anniversary of Ukrainian independence 23 years ago.
After four months of unrest in the east of their country, the new regime in Kyiv still has much to prove, while Putin appears to be dictating terms far more than negotiating them. The capture this week of Russian soldiers may have been a social media coup for Kyiv, but a lasting peace in the region is still a long way away.
Orange County writer and attorney Timothy Spangler hosts “The Bigger Picture with Timothy Spangler,” Sundays, 10 p.m.-midnight on KRLA 870 AM. Twitter: @timothyspangler
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