The Way Forward In Ukraine
Even as the Ukrainian government gains the upper hand over pro-Russian separatists on its soil, it is already clear that it will soon face a different, and daunting, challenge: rebuilding the country’s war-torn East and nationwide reform to ensure a more cohesive, united nation.
In June, Ukraine’s new president, Petro Poroshenko, promised Eastern Ukrainians constitutional amendments guaranteeing “broad decentralization of power” throughout the country. However, the pro-Russian separatists who controlled large swathes of the East at the time turned down Poroshenko’s offer, and the ensuing months of violence have prevented his plans from moving forward. But now, with peace on the horizon, the time has come for Kyiv to revisit these promises. It can do so in at least three areas.
First, Poroshenko must revive his proposal to decentralize power to Ukraine’s regions. Under the current system, Kyiv appoints regional governors in Eastern Ukraine with little or no local input. The pending Poroshenko proposal would give the local populace the right “to determine themselves to what monuments they should lay flowers, what they should celebrate, what songs they should sing at the holiday table … and in which churches to pray.” This decentralization would also include a beefed-up regional budget and greater local budgetary control.
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Second, Kyiv must ensure governmental protection of the Russian language. In 2012, the Ukrainian parliament passed a controversial law allowing regions to establish Russian as a language for use in courts, schools and other government institutions. But in February 2014, just days after the ouster of former President Viktor Yanukovych, the country’s parliament voted to repeal this law, effectively making Ukrainian the only acceptable language for all government activities. Despite an executive veto a few days later, the repeal sparked protests in Ukraine’s Russian-speaking East, which helped to fuel the separatist movement now crippling the region.
That history should be instructive. Poroshenko must reassure the inhabitants of Ukraine’s eastern flank that their autonomy in selecting a regional language is not and will not be under threat in Ukraine. Making and implementing these assurances will help reintegrate them into the country, and remove a powerful pretext for any future separatist unrest.
Third, Eastern Ukrainians must have broader representation in the central government in Kyiv. To assure this, the next parliamentary elections need to be free, fair and legitimate, and the East must be able to participate. While the official date for parliamentary elections has not yet been set, they could take place as soon as late September. This vote is extremely important, because in the past six months, the Ukrainian government has undergone two fundamental changes with almost no input from Ukrainians in the East.
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When Poroshenko’s predecessor fled in February 2014, his heavily Eastern Ukrainian cabinet was replaced virtually overnight by one with members almost exclusively from Western Ukraine. This reversal added fuel to the separatist fire, giving armed pro-Russian irregulars the excuse to take over government buildings and declare independence from what they claimed was a “fascist” government in Kyiv.
Just three months later, these same separatists prevented thousands from voting in the May 25 presidential elections in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, adding to the East’s atomization. The future stability of Ukraine, therefore, depends on the upcoming parliamentary vote reversing this trend and giving Eastern Ukrainians a representative voice.
Some fear that such changes will only further entrench the deep political divides in Ukraine, and provide Russia with even greater influence over Ukraine’s East. But the past six months have shown that a failure to address these issues can serve as a pretext for violent Russian-backed separatism. If Ukraine is to move forward as a successful and stable democracy, the government needs to assure Ukrainians of all regions and ethnicities that, as Poroshenko declared, “these issues will never again separate this country.”
The current government may soon have a unique opportunity to do just that. But its window of opportunity to win over the hearts and minds of Eastern Ukrainians will be narrow indeed.