Real balance key to a successful election, and lasting peace, in Ukraine

The war in the Donbass region of your country threatens not only you, but all of Europe, Italian President Giorgio Napalitano told his Ukrainian counterpart Petro Poroshenko in Milan last week. Italy was playing host to tense talks between Poroshenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin who, the world largely agrees, has been destabilizing Ukraine’s fragile new government by supporting an armed insurgency in Eastern Ukraine after annexing Crimea earlier this year.  With elections for a new Ukrainian parliament to be held this Sunday, what Italy, the rest of Europe, the United States and Ukraine’s many well-wishers need to be stressing is the need for balance in that divided country if the war is to be put to an end and Ukraine able to stand on its own two feet – not on one wobbly leg.

Although accusations abound that Russian media are censoring coverage of the Ukraine crisis, U.S. reporting has missed much of the underlying complexity in this crisis-wracked country. Indeed, the situation in Ukraine is nowhere near as black-and-white as many have reported. Ukrainian politics are today and have always been characterized by layers of complexity that require a veritable scorecard to keep track of the players.

A video that surfaced on the web last week of former President Viktor Yanukovych’s birthday bash in 2011 drives home this point. Released by the Vesti newspaper, the video swiftly made the rounds on Ukrainian web forums and news portals, depicting practically all Ukraine’s political establishment kowtowing to the one-time president, including Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadoviy, a respected politician in western Ukraine, and billionaire puppet-master Ihor Kholomoisky. But with the parliamentary elections soon approaching on Oct. 26 in a political environment where nothing’s as it seems, it is imperative to understand that radical views, including those of the pro-Western officials, do not represent the entire country. Moreover, to ensure stability, the election must bring fair representation to all Ukraine’s regions.

Political balance is integral to ensuring unity in Ukraine, and this unity must be rooted in values representative of the people’s diversity. With this in mind, groups such as the Opposition Bloc, which consists of figures from eastern Ukraine, must perform well in the elections. After the Maidan protests in Kyiv and Yanukovych’s forced ouster, a clear shift to the West took place in the government’s official maneuvering and rhetoric. Perhaps most fittingly, this transition is symbolized by President Petro Poroshenko’s decision to cancel the Defenders of the Fatherland holiday on Feb. 23, a Soviet holiday honoring the armed forces, and to make Oct. 14, the Day of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, a holiday instead. The move sat uneasily with many eastern Ukrainians because the Ukrainian Insurgent Army was playing a complicated game in those years, while the legacy of the East was then more clearly seen as opposing the advance of the Nazis.

In a similar vein, Poroshenko recently signed a new “lustration” law that the interim government is wasting no time in implementing it.  The estimated number of state employees who served in the previous administration and can now be summarily barred from public service for twenty years keeps going up and up, and may ultimately impacts hundreds of thousands in a Ukrainian version of “de-Ba’athification.” Despite the urgings of Human Rights Watch and groups, this political grenade has been thrown as the campaign season here began.

But it’s not only Ukraine’s political future that hinges on these elections leading to a fair representation of all regions in parliament. So does its economy. Today, for instance, 80 percent of Ukraine’s industrial strength lies in the east, which as long powered the budget. Now, though, this economic bedrock lies dormant as a result of the war. Facing high unemployment and terrorized by the deadly fighting between the government and rebel forces, eastern Ukraine is terrorized and – since Yanukovich’s removal – without substantial representation in Kyiv. With easterners now feeling politically ambivalent and isolated from the government, they deserve due attention and an adequate voice in parliament, should the government hope to get the country back on track.

As opposed to paying earnest heed to this need, Poroshenko prefers to feign the move. Fellow billionaire Ihor Kholomoisky, whom Poroshenko appointed as governor of a key Eastern region, is backing various candidates to distract the disenfranchised Eastern electorate.  One of these is oligarch Serhiy Tihipko, who purports to be the voice of the opposition but has a long track record of serving the interests of whoever occupies Ukraine’s throne at the moment.  Another is Sadoviy, whose candidate list comprised of “clean faces” has been enjoying a flood of positive coverage on Kholomoisky’s national television station, 1+1.  And then there is the current prime minister, darling of the West Arseniy Yatsenuk, whom America’s top diplomat for Europe simply calls “Yats.” In order to secure his position, Yatsenuk’s list must win enough votes to continue controlling parliament’s agenda – despite the crippling austerity measures he is imposing on Ukraine’s poor during a time of war to satisfy the IMF and other global lenders. Such backroom dealings can only be restrained by an inclusive government whose diversity will check agenda-driven leaders.

With the political divide and chaos rising in Ukraine with every passing day, international observers should be keenly aware of the power shifts that have taken place in the past eight months, and who is being victimized in violation of their human rights. If eastern Ukraine does not partake in the upcoming vote, it will bode poorly for the future. As Kholomoisky’s mercenaries intimidate opposition candidates and supporters in the eastern region of Dnipropetrovsk (his deputy governor was last week recorded instructing various thugs to beat an opposition MP and make it look like an accident), this election’s integrity is critical to there being a light at the end of the tunnel for a country whose national anthem begins “Ukraine’s glory has not yet perished.”  If the oligarchs succeed in their scheme to leave Easterners out of the equation, it just might.

Patten is an international political consultant who served as an advisor in the State Department in the previous administration. He has counseled political leaders in Ukraine, Georgia and Iraq, as well as the United States.  He has also directed Eurasia programs at Freedom House, a democracy and human rights watchdog.