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Putin Narrative of Abandoned Ukraine East Fueled by Vote

Vladimir Putin may have more
ammunition to extend his influence over the Ukraine’s war-torn
east after the country’s parliamentary election.

A surge in support for pro-European parties leaves the
area, the bedrock of ousted leader Viktor Yanukovych’s
popularity, with less of a say in the nation’s future. Parties
backing President Petro Poroshenko’s bid to steer Ukraine away
from its Soviet past are set to form a coalition, a move that
may make reconciliation in the east more difficult and fuel
complaints from Putin that Russian speakers are being trampled.

The outcome will muffle input from areas that hug Russia’s
border as Poroshenko embarks on a political and economic
transformation he says will prime Ukraine for European Union
membership. It risks further inflaming tensions between Russia
and its former Cold War adversaries, whose clashes over the
annexation of Crimea and Ukraine’s insurgency have triggered a
wave of sanctions.

“Besides the near-collapse of former President
Yanukovych’s camp, several seats have been left unoccupied and
the east saw a comparably low turnout,” Otilia Dhand, an
analyst at Teneo Intelligence, said by e-mail from London.
“Russia will almost certainly challenge the legitimacy and
representativeness of these elections.”

Wartime Vote

The ballot took place amid a shaky cease-fire in the
Donetsk and Luhansk regions, where pro-Russian separatists
blocked voting in the areas they control. Turnout was just over
30 percent, about half what it was two years ago.

The party of Sergei Tigipko, a cabinet member under
Yanukovych, failed to breach parliament’s 5 percent entry
barrier. The Opposition Bloc that contains former Yanukovych
allies garnered 9.8 percent of nationwide party-list votes,
according to early results, a third of what the deposed leader’s
Party of Regions received at the 2012 election.

While the bloc can team up with like-minded independent
lawmakers and win more seats in the single-seat districts that
make up almost half of parliament, it will face a coalition that
could secure a two-thirds constitutional majority.

That alliance won’t stick up for residents of eastern
Ukraine, according to Opposition Bloc member Sergei Larin.

“They’ve entrusted us with their voices as the opposition
to the power that today does virtually nothing for the people,”
he said, according to an e-mailed statement.

‘Our Guys’

While Yanukovych and members of his regime face allegations
of embezzlement, which they deny, the sense that the government
back in Kyiv isn’t fighting the east’s corner is widespread and
his former allies maintain popularity.

“I voted for the Opposition Bloc because they’re our guys
and I trust them,” Ivan Sergienko, 45, a worker at a machine-building plant in the Donetsk region town of Kramatorsk, said
yesterday. He backed ex-Party of Regions lawmaker Yuriy
Boyarskyi in his single-seat constituency.

While the government has passed a bill to keep former
associates of Yanukovych from senior state roles, the new rules
don’t apply to parliament and some of his allies are set for
success as independents. Early results also suggest a surprise
victory for the Opposition Bloc in the Dnipropetrovsk region
that borders Donetsk.

The election result has been met by skepticism in Russia,
which justified its annexation of Crimea by saying Russian-speaking Ukrainians were in danger after Yanukovych was toppled.
Putin, who denies accusations he’s behind the conflict in
Donbas, backs separate elections for the rebel-held parts of
Donetsk and Luhansk.

Foreign Influence

While Russia recognizes the results of yesterday’s ballot,
a senior lawmaker said today that the vote is part of efforts by
Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk to make Ukraine dependent on the U.S.
and Europe.

Poroshenko’s bloc and and Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s People’s Front “are striving to subjugate Ukraine
to foreign centers of influence and they’re successful,” Alexei Pushkov, head of the Russian parliament’s foreign-affairs
committee, said in an interview with the Itar-Tass news service.
“This has nothing to do with the independence of Ukraine, which
is held up as the main goal and foundation of the current
ideology.”

Since his election in May, Poroshenko has signed a
political association pact with the European Union that was
opposed by much of eastern Ukraine, as well as Russia. He wants
his nation ready to apply for EU membership in 2020.

Deeper Wedge

“The election of pro-Western politicians is unlikely to
appease rebels in the east of the country or, indeed, Russia,”
said Liza Ermolenko, an analyst at Capital Economics Ltd. in
London. “The slow-burning conflict in the east looks set to
continue.”

Yesterday’s vote will probably drive a deeper wedge between
residents of eastern Ukraine and the government in Kyiv,
according to Serhiy Yahnych and Yevgeniy Orudzhev, analysts at
BNP Paribas SA (BNP)’s Ukrainian unit, Ukrsibbank. They note that
almost 3 million people were unable to vote yesterday.

“Kyiv will surely be accused of defying the voice of those
people,” they said today in a note. “This could imply the gap
between ‘mainland’ Ukraine and its two eastern regions will
probably grow wider, making re-integration of those regions into
Ukraine, in whatever form, more difficult.”

To contact the reporter on this story:
Daryna Krasnolutska in Kyiv at
dkrasnolutsk@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Balazs Penz at
bpenz@bloomberg.net
Andrew Langley