Purposeful optimism
By
our dpa-correspondent and Europe Online
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Brussels (dpa) – Oettinger has been mediating between the two sides since May, amid fears that the European Union‘s gas supplies could be affected by their standoff. Russia stopped delivering gas to cash-strapped Ukraine in June because of unpaid bills.
The next round of negotiations between Oettinger and the energy ministers from Russia and Ukraine is scheduled for Tuesday. It had originally been expected to take place in Berlin, but Oettinger said it will be in Brussels.
“I am cautiously optimistic,” he said. “I think that given our intensive preparatory work, … a winter package for the safety of our (energy) supplies should be achievable.”
Oettinger will be in Kyiv on Sunday and Monday for further preliminary talks.
The deal currently on the table would see Russia resume gas deliveries to Ukraine, in exchange for Kyiv paying 3 billion dollars by the end of the year to start settling its gas debts. But the agreement still has to be endorsed by the two governments.
Ukraine currently has 17 billion cubic metres of gas in storage, but will need at least another 5 billion cubic metres to get through the winter – and as much as 10 to 12 billion extra cubic metres if the heating season proves to be long, Oettinger said.
These amounts would ensure that Ukraine can meet its energy needs, but would also discourage theft from the 75 billion cubic metres that travel through Ukraine on their way from Russia to EU markets, the commissioner said.
Oettinger on Thursday also presented the results of a gas stress test that the EU carried out with neighbouring countries to see how it would cope in the worst-case scenario of restricted gas supplies. The report will be considered by EU leaders at a summit next week.
It found that the EU and partners in its Energy Community could miss up to 9 billion cubic metres of gas if there is a prolonged supply disruption and they do not share resources. Finland, Estonia, Macedonia, Bosnia and Serbia would be among those worst affected.
Estonia is the most at risk, with the possibility that vulnerable consumers could face a cold winter – but only if EU countries seal off their national markets.
“If we work together, show solidarity, … no household in the EU has to be left out in the cold this winter,” Oettinger said.
A complete halt of Russian gas exports to the EU for six months was one of the possibilities considered under the stress test. Oettinger said he does not expect this scenario to materialize, but that it cannot be “completely excluded.”
Relations between Moscow and the West have been at their worst level since the fall of the Soviet Union, because of the crisis in Ukraine.
But Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that creating energy shortages in Europe would be against Russia‘s interests.
“Russian players won‘t cause any crisis in energy relations with Europe,” he said in Belgrade after talks with Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic, according to Russian news agencies.
Putin added however that there were “big transit risks,” because Ukraine might divert Russian gas illegally for its own needs, as was the case in 2008.
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