Lukaku threat a live one

2pts Romelu Lukaku to score at any time v Dynamo Kyiv

2pts Fiorentina (draw no bet) to beat Roma

Everton head to Dynamo Kyiv on Thursday holding a 2-1 lead and as slight favourites to progress to the quarter-finals of the Europa League.

A weekend win over Newcastle has given them some breathing space in what remains a relegation fight but one they appear to be winning at present.

It should certainly given them plenty of scope to play off the leash and with confidence continuing to build, albeit slowly, their position as ‘to qualify’ jollies is probably about right.

The Toffees were clearly the better side in the first leg, even if they did have to come from a goal down.

Yes, Kyiv now have home advantage and by all accounts it promises to be a hostile atmosphere with one section of their ground being closed as a result of trouble during their last-round win.

However, as long as Everton apply themselves professionally they should be able to prevent a huge swing in momentum.

That is what Kyiv really require as they could easily have been more than a goal down coming into ths tie.

They lost the midfield battle comprehensively at Goodison Park, while Romelu Lukaku battered their defence, continuing a run of form which has seen him score seven times in seven games.

The Belgian has been a key man in these European away games for Roberto Martinez. He caused Young Boys all sorts of problems as he netted a hat-trick in Bern in the last round, while he was also the main man when Everton won at Wolfsburg back in the autumn.

With Everton finally playing more direct – something their fans and most pundits have been calling for all season – Lukaku is now a more effective weapon and at 11/4 the 21-year-old looks big to score here at any time.

The Kyiv defence really didn’t know how to handle him last week and it’s hard to see things turning round that much in just seven days.

As an added bonus to his backers, it would appear Lukaku is now the man in possession of the penalties at Everton – he took one and scored in the first leg and, crucially, did the same against Newcastle on Sunday despite Leighton Baines being back in the side.

To me, the price looks more than fair.

Looking elsewhere, siding with Fiorentina looks a good play for their clash away to fellow Italian side Roma as the sides’ contrasting form is simply not reflected in the prices.

It’s just two wins in their last 15 for Roma, whose Serie A title challenge is now a thing of the past. They also have Radja Nainggolan suspended for the game, while Maicon (thigh) and Victor Ibarbo (calf) are injury doubts.

The Viola, however, are full of confidence, having lost just once in their last 16 – a run which has taken place over almost exactly the same period as Roma’s ropey one.

The Florence side’s run has brought wins at Inter Milan and Juventus, not to mention a 2-0 success in this very fixture in the Coppa Italia.

No matter how much weight you attach to Italian cup results, you cannot argue that the run Fiorentina are on is not impressive.

Chelsea reject Mohamed Salah is flying since his January switch meaning Juan Cuadrado has not been missed and he’s helped keep the team on a scoring run – only Lazio have kept them out in those 16 matches.

Yet despite all this, Fiorentina are 3/1 in the 90-minute market with Roma odds-on in places. It just looks wrong.

The route I’m taking though is the draw-no-bet one;Fiorentina can be backed at 17/10 in that market. It provides the safety net of a stalemate which has to be a live threat given Roma have drawn the majority of their games during the run which has seen them struggling for wins.

It is also a result which could be good enough to take the home side through so ensuring stakes are returned if the game ends all square seemsa good way to approach this one while still getting a decent price on the away win.

  • Both games mentioned kick-off at 1800 GMT.

Posted at 1500 GMT on 18/03/15.