Illegal elections are separatists’ next move
In spite of warnings from the international community and in violation of the Minsk Protocol, the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) is planning to hold local elections on November 2nd and a referendum on independence on November 9th.
Gennadiy Moskal, the pro-Kyiv head of the Luhansk regional state administration, said on October 13th that militants have started distributing leaflets announcing the election and the referendum.
Leaders of both self-proclaimed republics, LNR and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), agreed to conduct elections on the same date — a move that US Secretary of State John Kerry condemned during talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Paris on October 14th.
Kerry warned that “the United States and the international community would not recognise any referendum held in separatist-held areas of Ukraine,” and acknowledged this was a “point of disagreement” in his more than three-hour talk with Lavrov.
Kerry also emphasised that elections planned by separatists in the region are a violation of the Minsk Protocol. According to the agreement, which was signed by the representatives of Ukraine, Russia and both self-proclaimed republics, elections in Donbas can be held only after the completion of several preconditions.
“Both the Minsk Protocol and the law on local self-governance foresee local elections in Donbas, but the law can be used only when all conditions are met: withdrawal of Russian troops, disarmament, and starting procedures for bringing to justice those who have committed crimes,” Viktor Zamiatin, an expert on political and legal programmes at the Razumkov Centre, a public policy think tank, told SETimes.
According to the Ukrainian National Security and Defence Council, terrorists have continued shooting and shelling against Ukrainian army positions, resulting in the deaths of about 70 Ukrainian soldiers since the truce was signed. Many points of the Minsk agreement still have not been implemented.
Elections and referendums in the self-proclaimed republics will lack legitimacy, experts said.
“Elections in the presence of armed men are not elections, it is another fiction. The result of such pseudo-elections and pseudo-referendums held at gunpoint are not difficult to predict,” Igor Kogut, board chairman of the Agency for Legislative Initiatives in Kyiv, told SETimes.
Separatists have reported different dates for the election, and are now preparing to hold them the week following Sunday’s (October 26th) Ukrainian parliamentary elections.
“By doing so, separatists want to show that they are living their own political life: Ukraine holds elections at one time and separatists at another,” Victor Nebozhenko, director of the Ukrainian Barometer Sociological Service, told SETimes. Experts said that illegal elections in Donbas held by separatists will enable Moscow to try to strengthen its influence in the region and hide crimes committed by militants.
“Separatists have shown a complete inability to organise elementary living conditions for people in occupied territories,” Nebozhenko said. “Voting is not only about pseudo-statehood. It is very important for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin to get more manageable territory. And for this purpose it is necessary that the power belongs to so-called moderate people. Putin’s task now is to show that he is in control of situation and that he is trying to change militants into an autonomous administration. Separatist elections will allow Moscow to remove gangster groups, and cover their tracks.”
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