“Golden” gas
DAY AFTER DAY
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Gazprom demonstrates the open price discrimination to Ukraine
As a rule, before another round of Ukrainian-Russian gas talks the information warfare between the participants aggravates. The end of the last week was not an exception. The Russian ambassador in Kyiv Mikhail Zurabov made public certain details of the telephone conversation between the Ukrainian president and the Russian authorities that had apparently been held on Wednesday, February 8. Zurabov communicated encouraging news: it had been decided to resume the gas talks in Moscow any day. Moreover, in ambassador’s opinion, “the probability of reaching the agreement acceptable for the two countries is quite high.” Is it really so?
Last Friday Gazprom held the “investors’ day” closed to journalists and presented some of its plans for 2012. Gazprom’s main message was its intention to cut prices for the gas for the EU countries by 7 to 10 percent (in exchange for higher purchase amount). This is what the Polish newspaper Parkiet reported referring to a IFD Kapital representative. Does this “favor” apply to Ukraine which is the largest buyer of the Russian gas and the main transit country on its way to Europe? If the formula determining the gas price for our country does not change after the talks, according to the Russian monopolist’s plans, we will continue buying the gas not cheaper than 516 dollars per 1,000 cubic meters (with a 100-dollar discount for Sevastopol).
Judging from the information Zurabov spread, the favorable prospects for Ukraine might be the result of the agreement concerning the Black Sea Fleet, extremely important for Russia and the necessity of the simultaneous ratification of the agreement on the CIS free trade zone. Zurabov is nearly sure that the corresponding documents will be signed in the nearest future.
Ukraine is not so optimistic so far. Why didn’t Gazprom agree to take even a penny less than the disastrous contracts of 2009 over two years of talks? However, in 2012 it is going to sell the gas to Europe for 415 dollars in average, as it was emphasized at the presentation. Moreover, it is ready to give additional significant discounts.
It is also suspicious because the term of the “near future” is devalued in the Ukrainian-Russian relations. Speaking at the Latvian University Mykola Azarov assured that Ukraine was not going to endure Russia’s gas dictate anymore: “We are working on the alternative energy sources, holding negotiations and have nearly agreed on other oil and gas suppliers. If the prices for the Russian gas and oil are preserved we will have to buy less of these strategically important goods from our Russian partners.”
Being in an EU country Azarov reproached the Europeans for their passiveness in creation of the trilateral consortium to manage the Ukrainian gas-transport system. “If there had been the political will, he said, just like the will needed to overcome the economic and financial crisis, the crisis would have been fought and the consortium would have been created.” The prime minister backed his rebuke with a real example: “Cold weather came to Italy and it started getting 15 percent less of gas. We say: why didn’t you invest in our gas-transport system modernization? We are able to supply 150 billion cubic meters of gas and will be able to supply 200 billion after modernization.” “However, is Russia ready to supply 200 billion cubic meters of gas to the EU? Do they have these 200 billion cubic meters?”
Was anything concerning the next round of gas talks cleared up on “investors’ day”? It looks like Gazprom’s promises are rather obscure than transparent. The common sense says: our delegation should go to Moscow only if Ukraine is treated at least equally to the European countries that were not ashamed of wringing discounts at the Stockholm Court. This experience is very valuable for Ukraine. We cannot allow the natural gas being golden for Ukraine.
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