French diplomatic plan to permit elections in eastern Ukraine
The dispute over elections in Donbass in eastern Ukraine has threatened to undermine the Minsk agreement signed between Ukraine and pro-Moscow rebels. As the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine meet in Paris, veteran French diplomat Pierre Morel has presented a plan which could allow the elections to take place.
Until now, the government in Kyiv has insisted that local elections due to be held on October 25 should be held according to Ukrainian law in Donbass.
But the self-proclaimed “People’s Republic of Donetsk and Luhansk” has set a different date, and does not intend to consult Kyiv on the vote.
Morel is chairman of the working group on political affairs of the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG), consisting of representatives from Ukraine, the Russian Federation and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). It is engaged in finding a peaceful solution to the conflict in Donbass.
Morel’s plan proposes that elections would be held in compliance with Ukrainian law, as Kyiv wishes, but that the “People’s Republic” would have the possibility of staging them according to their own rules. The diplomat believes this would free the way to implementation of hte Minsk Protocol. It stipulates that Donbass remain part of Ukraine and that Kyiv restores its sovereignty over the region.
Unenthusiastic Kyiv
Kyiv is not enthusiastic about Morel’s plan. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said that he considers it to be nothing more than “Morel’s personal opinion.”
Oleksiy Makeyev from the Ukrainian foreign office was less dismissive when he told Deutsche Welle that Ukraine does not reject the “Morel Plan” out of hand, and that it could consider it as one among several proposals. Nevertheless, he went on to emphasize, that for Kyiv, the Minsk Protocol remains the guiding document.
But other participants in the “Normandy format,” a diplomatic group consisting of senior representatives from Germany, the Russian Federation, Ukraine and France, view things differently.
The German foreign office stated that Berlin considers the “Morel Plan” to be the basis for a further step towards a solution to the Donbass conflict. That statement reflects the sentiments that German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier expressed after talks with the foreign ministers of the “Normandy format” in Berlin, on September 12.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also proposed supporting Morel’s idea. In a statement to DW and the French foreign office indicated their approval of the plan as well.
Ultimatum in Ukraine
In Ukraine the “Morel Plan” is seen as an ultimatum. Maria Solkina of the “Democratic Initiatives Foundation,” a Kyiv based research center, told DW that Western partners were forcing Kyiv into a compromise and using the leverage of economic and political dependency on the West to that end.
Solkina warned that if the Ukrainian leadership were to go along with the “Morel Plan” the “quasi republic” would automatically be recognized. “Ultimately, we would have to support the region economically, but would have no say there politically,” she said.
Andrew Wilson from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) also sees risks for Kyiv. He told DW that Morel’s proposals belong in the “wastebasket.” And that Russia was simply attempting to “Chechnify” the problem. Donbass’ formal affiliation with Ukraine, he says, would allow Moscow to destabilize the rest of the country. According to Wilson, Kyiv could reject Morel’s plan and invoke the Minsk Protocol.
But in the opinion of French security and policy expert Mathieu Boulègue, Ukriane has much less room for diplomatic maneuvering today, because of its current economical and political situation. “Ukraine has to accept a compromise. The Ukrainians know that, but the problem is they don’t want to,” as Boulègue told DW.
As DW has learned from diplomatic circles in Paris, the “Morel Plan” is most likely not a purely European offer. Several proposals for the implementation of the Minsk Protocol have already been directly discussed between Washington and Moscow. In May, Assistant US Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, Victoria Nuland, said that Washington wanted to strengthen its role in the settlement of the Donbass conflict.
According to the Paris sources, general outlines for compromises on contentious issues were discussed between Nuland and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin in late July. Afterwards, Morel was tasked with working out the details. Upon preliminary approval of Morel’s proposals, French President Francois Hollande called for a meeting of the heads of state participating in the “Normandy format” in Paris this October.