EconomictensionsworsenunrestineasternUkraine
I traveled to Donetsk, the de facto capital of the Donbas, the weekend before the Crimean referendum. “How is that Kyiv of yours?” a taxi driver inquired as we left the train station. “I heard the new prime minister has already announced pension cuts. I can help my mum, but what about the old people who don’t have children?”
Many people in the Donbas share his disdain for the new leadership in Kyiv and hold a mistaken view that their resource-rich region subsidizes the rest of Ukraine. According to The Kyiv Times, the Donbas region accounted for only 12 percent of Ukraine’s gross domestic product and consumed 21 percent of government subsidies in 2010. “I want Ukraine to stay together,” the taxi driver continued, “but the Donbas should be self-governing.”
On March 8, a crowd of about 2,000 people — waving the flags of the short-lived Donetsk Republic created by Lenin in 1918 — gathered near Lenin Square chanting, “Referendum! Federalism!” But the protesters in Donbas are even more divided than in Kyiv and lack a discernible political direction. “I want this city to be part of Russia,” a man in his early 30s proclaims, speaking to anti-Maidan demonstrators. The next speaker emphasizes the need for greater autonomy, adding, “I don’t like Russia seizing Crimea.”
These tensions mirror the muddled regional identities in Ukraine. Observers see the Donbas as a Russian bastion that simply does not fit in Ukraine. But according to the country’s 2001 census, about 57 percent of Donbas residents identify as Ukrainians. Many Ukrainians resent claims by Russian politicians that Ukrainians are in fact Russians. Even its 38 percent who are ethnic Russians don’t have strong separatist feelings. As such, the much-publicized east-west split in Ukraine is not a good indicator of political preferences.
All told, occupational differences matter more than regional and ethnic divisions in the current political crisis. Under ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich’s rule, small-business owners in eastern Ukraine were overrun by local mafias supported by Yanukovich’s allies. Corrupt state prosecutors used loopholes in the law to shut down those who refused to pay “protection” charges. Small businesses in the region are encouraged by the Maidan’s anti-corruption rhetoric.
But those who work in eastern Ukraine’s heavy industry see the crisis in a different light. They do not fully support Russia, but they also see the Maidan as out of touch with their needs. For example, Artyom Misyura, who runs a company that produces heavy machinery, says Russians have not placed a single order at his factory in the last four months. In addition, they have refused to pick up or pay for machines ordered before the protests began in November. Domestic orders dried out in February. A local steel company that buys machinery from his factory has been forced to halt production because it has not been able to access credit since the outbreak of political instability. As Kyiv scrambles to regain control, there is a growing fear among businesses in the Donbas about the future of their manufacturing-based economy.