Crimean referendum will lead to greater tensions between Moscow, Kyiv
Opinion
Voters in Crimea overwhelmingly cast ballots Sunday and voted to seek secession from Ukraine and annexation by Russia, bringing even more tension to an already fraught diplomatic row between Moscow and a former member of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
According to news reports, more than 95 percent of those who went to the polls voted for secession and for reuniting with Russia. Normally, it would be very difficult to ignore a voting margin that under normal circumstances would be an overwhelming mandate from the public, but in the face of thousands of Russian troops and weapons, the vote amounts to little more than a shotgun wedding.
The United States and European nations already announced Sunday they would reject the vote and are likely headed toward imposing further sanctions. They agreed with opponents of the vote, who called it a cynical power play and a land grab by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Putin ignored critics, including US President Barack Obama, and even tens of thousands of his own citizens who took to the streets of Moscow to protest against intervention in Crimea.
Putin said the referendum was conducted in “full accordance with international law and the [United Nations] charter.”
The speaker of Russia’s Duma, the lower house of the Federal Assembly, which is Russia’s legislature, hailed the vote.
“We understand that for 23 years after Ukraine’s formation as a sovereign state, Crimeans have been waiting for this day,” Sergei Naryshkin said. The Federation Council is the upper house.
Ukraine’s Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk announced his country would “never surrender” even as Russia is appearing more aggressive toward its former subordinate state.
“Under the stage direction of the Russian Federation, a circus performance is underway: the so-called referendum,” Yatsenyuk said. “Also taking part in the performance are 21,000 Russian troops, who with their guns are trying to prove the legality of the referendum.”
Now that the vote dreaded by millions around the world is a fait accompli, what happens next is a matter of speculation. Allvoices ARobert Weller contends that Ukraine is headed for bloodshed in the coming days. Even if the violence is limited to aggressive shouting from Moscow and Kyiv, this episode suggests that ugliness remains the only possible forecast in the region. Among Ukraine’s 46 million people, the eastern half of the country favors close ties with Moscow, while citizens in Kyiv and the western part of Ukraine support aligning with Washington and the West.
in a press conference Sunday, the White House emphasized it would not recognize the vote.
“The international community will not recognize the results of a poll administered under threats of violence,” it said in a statement. “Russia’s actions are dangerous and destabilizing.”
As expected, Russia used its veto as a permanent member of the UN Security Council to shoot down a resolution declaring the referendum illegal.
Threats of sanctions and imposing sanctions have shown to have little effect on Putin, so what could work? Short of committing NATO troops and ships to the region in what Moscow could declare a provocative move, Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other leaders’ hands are tied lest they risk the onset of World War III.
The chances that China would get involved and support Washington, as Obama tried to orchestrate a week ago, were remote at best and a pipe dream at worst; Moscow and Beijing are allies and aren’t frenemies the way the US and China and the US and Russia are.
It may be harder to contain the Russian bear as it continues to threaten Ukraine unless sanctions can starve it enough to force Putin’s hand. If Putin dared to ignore his own people, many of whom protested despite state media whitewashing Putin’s actions, it remains to be seen what could prevent him from further incursions.