Analysis: Ukraine at political crossroads between East and West again
By MATTHEW DAY
Published on Thursday 3 May 2012 00:00
If one good thing comes out of the imprisonment of Yuila Tymoshenko, Ukraine’s former prime minister, is that it appears to have goaded the EU into action over Ukraine and the eastern European country’s thin veneer of democracy and rule of law.
Mrs Tymoshenko, once the golden girl of 2004’s Orange Revolution, is on hunger strike while serving a seven-year jail sentence for abuse of office. While her conviction on dubious grounds last year raised Western hackles recent pictures of her have kicked up a storm.
The photographs show her sporting bruises on her arms and abdomen, and suggest her guards have a violent streak.
Government claims that the injuries came from her colliding with “blunt objects” have little credibility.
Germany has led the way in response to the treatment of Mrs Tymoshenko. First Joachim Gauck, the German president, said he would boycott a head-of-states meeting in the Crimea, and then Angela Merkel indicated that she may well not travel to Ukraine for Germany’s group games in the forthcoming European football championships.
Now Guido Westerwelle, Germany’s foreign minister, has said concerns over the treatment of Mrs Tymoshenko may prompt Germany into blocking the ratification of a key political and trade deal struck between the EU and Ukraine.
In the meantime a stack of other European leaders have publically rebuked Ukraine, and rumours have also started to circulate the country might even be stripped of the European championship, which it co-hosts with Poland.
Although at the moment the tough talk is little more than talk, the Tymoshenko case has raised the profile of Ukraine and its patchy regard for human rights and rule of law, and this should be welcomed.
For some time now, the EU has been distracted by Arab revolutions and the ongoing euro crisis, while problems on its eastern flank have been neglected and in some ways been left to fester.
Press freedoms in Ukraine have been whittled away, Mrs Tymoshenko is not the only opposition politician now behind bars and hopes that this autumn’s parliamentary elections will be free and fair appear to be built on sand.
Corruption and political cronyism, always a problem in Ukraine, have become even more ingrained since Viktor Yanukovych won the country’s presidential elections in 2010. The president has entrenched his power base and influence by eradicating opposition, and this has provided ample fertiliser for dishonest profiteering and nepotism.
But the plight of Mrs Tymoshenko provides the EU with a clear instrument with which to hold Ukraine to account. If the government improves her conditions, or accepts a German offer of sending her to Germany for medical treatment, then the EU can relieve some of the pressure on Kyiv. Failure to so could prompt a tougher line from Europe including possible sanctions against members of the Ukrainian government.
But at the same time Europe has a problem in that Russia lurks in the wings.
Push Ukraine too hard, demand too much from her, and Ukraine might seek shelter under the wing of a country that has enormous vested interests in keeping Kyiv in its fold.
Once firmly entwined in Moscow’s grip, Ukraine may never walk down the road of western European style democracy that many hope it will do one day.
President Yanukovych has actually done a decent job of resisting Russian pressure so far. He has rejected Moscow’s overtures to join a customs union and has even resumed defence co-operation with Georgia, a country which is no friend of Moscow.
But if he feels the EU is making unreasonable demands, or – more importantly – threatening his political position, he could throw his hand in with Moscow.
There is no denying Ukraine is a complicated issue, thwart with danger, but Europe needs to address it. Let the country slide away into the corrupt mass of the world of post-Soviet politics and it may never be recovered.
l Mathew Day reports on eastern Europe for The Scotsman