After Crimea, the Only Question is "What’s Next?"
Ukrainian kozaks on Maidan Square in Kyiv perform the traditional call to arms. Credit: M Bociurkiw
The mood on Maidan Square in central Kyiv remains decidedly grim after a referendum widely branded as illegal and illegitimate took place in Crimea on Sunday. Two Ukrainian kozaks loudly beat drums in a rhythm that is normally used in the call to arms. It serves to heighten the sense of foreboding.
Now that Crimea has been hived off from mainland Ukraine, “what next?” is the question on everyone’s minds. Will the insatiable appetite of the hungry Russian bear be satisfied with the Crimean peninsula, or will Russia invade eastern Ukraine on the pretext of protecting key assets or Russian-speaking citizens?
Mychailo Wynnyckyj, an associate professor at the prestigious Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, cites polls that say only 17 per cent believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin will stop his aggression with the annexation of Crimea. Their fears are backed by people who know the Putin mindset well.
Indeed, former Putin adviser Andriy Ilarionov says the Russian leader is determined to destroy Ukraine, and to correct what he sees as the grave historical mistake of the country gaining independence when the Soviet Union broke apart.
To Putin, having a rogue state on his doorstep, one that allowed its main capital square to be occupied by thugs and extremists for months, is unacceptable.
Ukrainians are also facing the real possibility that they may soon be a nation at war. TV ads asking people to donate to the Armed Forces and news footage showing troop movements has come as a real shock to most. Some Kyiv residents, fearing further violence similar to that witnessed in Kharkiv and Donetsk have retreated to other regions of the country.
Ukrainian armed forces have mobilized in a show of force on the country’s eastern border with Russia. Over the weekend, the cash-strapped interim government allocated about $680 million to help rehabilitate the armed forces — in the process cutting some social services.
A law allowing for the formation of a National Guard was passed, training has intensified, and there has been mass mobilization of 20,000 reserves is set to begin this week..
“Ukraine’s government seems to have finally begun real preparations for war,” said Wynnyckyj.
There are those who feel the Ukrainian government has acted too passively — and too late. Not moving to seal its eastern borders and prevent waves of Russian provocateurs from entering the country is seen as a major blunder. Why Kyiv waited so long to mobilize its armed forces is another mystery.
Other than having to deal with an imminent threat from Russia — as well as disturbances in many cities — the government is having to prepare for a humanitarian crisis out of Crimea. Already, at least 250 families have left for the safety of the western mainland city of Lviv.
The Crimean Tartars, who make up about 300,000 of the 1.8-million population of the peninsula, say they could face persecution should Russia take over Crimea. In all, 36 per cent of the population are Ukrainian or Tartar decent. Activists from mainland Ukraine who had visited Crimea in the past few days have come back with horrific reports of harassment and intimidation.
“Don’t go to Crimea with any Ukrainian national insignia” one AutoMaidan activist told a Kyiv news conference today.
Government ministers in Kyiv are also busily deciding how to move forward with Crimea under Russia. The fate of water, electricity and gas links are just some of the items that need to be decided.
And now with Crimea gone, can the country still go ahead with scheduled Presidential elections on May 25? Some analysts suggest there’s major work to be done to change electoral and related laws in order to take into account the removal of Crimea.
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RUSSIA-UKRAINE-POLITICS-CRISIS-EU-US-PUTIN
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin drinks as he addresses a joint session of Russian parliament on Crimea in the Kremlin in Moscow on March 18, 2014. Putin signed today a treaty with the leaders of Crimea on the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula becoming part of Russia, state television showed. AFP PHOTO/KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV (Photo credit should read KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP/Getty Images)
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RUSSIA-UKRAINE-POLITICS-CRISIS-EU-US-PUTIN
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin addresses a joint session of Russian parliament on Crimea in the Kremlin in Moscow on March 18, 2014. Putin signed today a treaty with the leaders of Crimea on the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula becoming part of Russia, state television showed. AFP PHOTO/ POOL/ SERGEI ILNITSKY (Photo credit should read SERGEI ILNITSKY/AFP/Getty Images)
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RUSSIA-UKRAINE-POLITICS-CRISIS-EU-US-PUTIN
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin looks on as he addresses a joint session of Russian parliament on Crimea in the Kremlin in Moscow on March 18, 2014. Putin signed today a treaty with the leaders of Crimea on the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula becoming part of Russia, state television showed. AFP PHOTO/KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV (Photo credit should read KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP/Getty Images)
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RUSSIA-UKRAINE-POLITICS-CRISIS-EU-US-PUTIN
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin addresses a joint session of Russian parliament on Crimea in the Kremlin in Moscow on March 18, 2014. Putin signed today a treaty with the leaders of Crimea on the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula becoming part of Russia, state television showed. AFP PHOTO/KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV (Photo credit should read KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP/Getty Images)
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RUSSIA-UKRAINE-POLITICS-CRISIS-EU-US-PUTIN
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin addresses a joint session of Russian parliament on Crimea in the Kremlin in Moscow on March 18, 2014. Putin signed today a treaty with the leaders of Crimea on the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula becoming part of Russia, state television showed. AFP PHOTO/ POOL/ SERGEI ILNITSKY (Photo credit should read SERGEI ILNITSKY/AFP/Getty Images)
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RUSSIA-UKRAINE-POLITICS-CRISIS-EU-US-PUTIN
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin addresses a joint session of Russian parliament on Crimea in the Kremlin in Moscow on March 18, 2014. Putin signed today a treaty with the leaders of Crimea on the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula becoming part of Russia, state television showed. AFP PHOTO/ POOL/ SERGEI ILNITSKY (Photo credit should read SERGEI ILNITSKY/AFP/Getty Images)
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RUSSIA-UKRAINE-POLITICS-CRISIS-EU-US-PUTIN
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin arrives to address a joint session of Russian parliament on Crimea in the Kremlin in Moscow on March 18, 2014. Putin signed today a treaty with the leaders of Crimea on the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula becoming part of Russia, state television showed. AFP PHOTO/ POOL/ SERGEI ILNITSKY (Photo credit should read SERGEI ILNITSKY/AFP/Getty Images)
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CORRECTION-UKRAINE-RUSSIA-UNREST-POLITICS
A man holds a Russian flag as he secures the Crimean parliament building in central Simferopol on March 17, 2014. Crimea declared independence today and applied to join Russia while the Kremlin braced for sanctions after the flashpoint peninsula voted to leave Ukraine in a ballot that has fanned the worst East-West tensions since the Cold War. AFP PHOTO / DIMITAR DILKOFF CAPTION CORRECTION CORRECTING FLAG (Photo credit should read DIMITAR DILKOFF/AFP/Getty Images)
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US-POLITICS-UKRAINE-OBAMA
US President Barack Obama speaks about the situation in the Crimea region of Ukraine during a statement in the Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House in Washington, DC, March 17, 2014. AFP PHOTO / Saul LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)
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US-POLITICS-UKRAINE-OBAMA
US President Barack Obama leaves after speaking about the situation in the Crimea region of Ukraine during a statement in the Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House in Washington, DC, March 17, 2014. The United States and Europe targeted Vladimir Putin’s inner circle on Monday, slapping sanctions on senior officials to pressure the Kremlin to abandon moves to annex Crimea. AFP PHOTO / Saul LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)
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US-POLITICS-UKRAINE-OBAMA
US President Barack Obama speaks about the situation in the Crimea region of Ukraine during a statement in the Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House in Washington, DC, March 17, 2014. The United States and Europe targeted Vladimir Putin’s inner circle on Monday, slapping sanctions on senior officials to pressure the Kremlin to abandon moves to annex Crimea. AFP PHOTO / Saul LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)
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US-POLITICS-UKRAINE-OBAMA
US President Barack Obama speaks about the situation in the Crimea region of Ukraine during a statement in the Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House in Washington, DC, March 17, 2014. AFP PHOTO / Saul LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)
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UKRAINE-UNREST-RUSSIA
Russian armoured vehicles drive on the road between Simferopol and Sevastopol on March 17, 2014. Ukraine’s foreign minister denounced Russian ‘provocations’ on March 17, 2014, warning of a troop build-up on the border and the presence of ‘political tourists’ in its eastern regions. ‘We are very much concerned by the number of Russian troops on the (border),’ Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchytsya said after talks with NATO head Anders Fogh Rasmussen. AFP PHOTO/ VIKTOR DRACHEV (Photo credit should read VIKTOR DRACHEV/AFP/Getty Images)
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UKRAINE-UNREST-RUSSIA
A Russian armoured vehicle drives on the road between Simferopol and Sevastopol on March 17, 2014. Ukraine’s foreign minister denounced Russian ‘provocations’ on March 17, 2014, warning of a troop build-up on the border and the presence of ‘political tourists’ in its eastern regions. ‘We are very much concerned by the number of Russian troops on the (border),’ Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchytsya said after talks with NATO head Anders Fogh Rasmussen. AFP PHOTO/ VIKTOR DRACHEV (Photo credit should read VIKTOR DRACHEV/AFP/Getty Images)
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UKRAINE-UNREST-RUSSIA
Russian armoured vehicles drive on the road between Simferopol and Sevastopol on March 17, 2014. Ukraine’s foreign minister denounced Russian ‘provocations’ on March 17, 2014, warning of a troop build-up on the border and the presence of ‘political tourists’ in its eastern regions. ‘We are very much concerned by the number of Russian troops on the (border),’ Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchytsya said after talks with NATO head Anders Fogh Rasmussen. AFP PHOTO/ VIKTOR DRACHEV (Photo credit should read VIKTOR DRACHEV/AFP/Getty Images)
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Crimea Recognised As Sovereign State By Putin
SIMFEROPOL, UKRAINE – MARCH 18: Stall holders and members of the public gather round a laptop to watch an address by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on a market stall on March 18, 2014 in Simferopol, Ukraine. Speaking at the Kremlin President Putin told a special session of Russia’s parliament that Crimea had ‘always been part of Russia’, and recognised Crimea as a sovereign state. (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)
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Crimea Recognised As Sovereign State By Putin
SIMFEROPOL, UKRAINE – MARCH 18: Russian President Vladimir Putin is viewed on a television screen in a cafe on March 18, 2014 in Simferopol, Ukraine. Putin celebrated this weekend’s referendum in Crimea, saying that 96% who voted chose to join Russia. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
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Crimea Goes To The Polls In Crucial Referendum
SIMFEROPOL, UKRAINE – MARCH 16: People in Lenin Square attend a pro Russian rally after a day of voting on March 16, 2014 in Simferopol, Ukraine. Crimean’s went to the polls today in a vote that which will decide whether the peninsular will break away from mainland Ukraine. The referendum, which has been dismissed as illegal by the West, follows the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych by pro-Western and nationalist protesters. As the standoff between the Russian military and Ukrainian forces continues in Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, world leaders are continuing toÊ push for a diplomatic solution to the escalating situation though many believe that there is every likelihood that thy vote will favor Crimea being incorporated into Russia. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
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Crimea Goes To The Polls In Crucial Referendum
SIMFEROPOL, UKRAINE – MARCH 16: People in Lenin Square attend a pro Russian rally after a day of voting on March 16, 2014 in Simferopol, Ukraine. Crimean’s went to the polls today in a vote that which will decide whether the peninsular will break away from mainland Ukraine. The referendum, which has been dismissed as illegal by the West, follows the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych by pro-Western and nationalist protesters. As the standoff between the Russian military and Ukrainian forces continues in Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, world leaders are continuing toÊ push for a diplomatic solution to the escalating situation though many believe that there is every likelihood that thy vote will favor Crimea being incorporated into Russia. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
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Crimea Goes To The Polls In Crucial Referendum
SIMFEROPOL, UKRAINE – MARCH 16: People in Lenin Square attend a pro Russian rally after a day of voting on March 16, 2014 in Simferopol, Ukraine. Crimean’s went to the polls today in a vote that which will decide whether the peninsular will break away from mainland Ukraine. The referendum, which has been dismissed as illegal by the West, follows the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych by pro-Western and nationalist protesters. As the standoff between the Russian military and Ukrainian forces continues in Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, world leaders are continuing toÊ push for a diplomatic solution to the escalating situation though many believe that there is every likelihood that thy vote will favor Crimea being incorporated into Russia. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
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Crimea Goes To The Polls In Crucial Referendum
SIMFEROPOL, UKRAINE – MARCH 16: People in Lenin Square attend a pro Russian rally after a day of voting on March 16, 2014 in Simferopol, Ukraine. Crimean’s went to the polls today in a vote that which will decide whether the peninsular will break away from mainland Ukraine. The referendum, which has been dismissed as illegal by the West, follows the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych by pro-Western and nationalist protesters. As the standoff between the Russian military and Ukrainian forces continues in Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, world leaders are continuing toÊ push for a diplomatic solution to the escalating situation though many believe that there is every likelihood that thy vote will favor Crimea being incorporated into Russia. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
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Crimea Goes To The Polls In Crucial Referendum
SIMFEROPOL, UKRAINE – MARCH 16: Election staff begin the count at a polling station after a day of voting on March 16, 2014 in Bachchisaray, Ukraine. Crimeans go to the polls today in a vote that which will decide whether the peninsular will break away from mainland Ukraine. The referendum, which has been dismissed as illegal by the West, follows the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych by pro-Western and nationalist protesters. As the standoff between the Russian military and Ukrainian forces continues in Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, world leaders are continuing to push for a diplomatic solution to the escalating situation though many believe that there is every likelihood that thy vote will favour Crimea being incorporated into Russia. (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)
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Crimea Goes To The Polls In Crucial Referendum
SIMFEROPOL, UKRAINE – MARCH 16: People in Lenin Square attend a pro Russian rally after a day of voting on March 16, 2014 in Simferopol, Ukraine. Crimean’s went to the polls today in a vote that which will decide whether the peninsular will break away from mainland Ukraine. The referendum, which has been dismissed as illegal by the West, follows the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych by pro-Western and nationalist protesters. As the standoff between the Russian military and Ukrainian forces continues in Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, world leaders are continuing toÊ push for a diplomatic solution to the escalating situation though many believe that there is every likelihood that thy vote will favor Crimea being incorporated into Russia. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
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Crimea Goes To The Polls In Crucial Referendum
SIMFEROPOL, UKRAINE – MARCH 16: People in Lenin Square attend a pro Russian rally after a day of voting on March 16, 2014 in Simferopol, Ukraine. Crimean’s went to the polls today in a vote that which will decide whether the peninsular will break away from mainland Ukraine. The referendum, which has been dismissed as illegal by the West, follows the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych by pro-Western and nationalist protesters. As the standoff between the Russian military and Ukrainian forces continues in Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, world leaders are continuing toÊ push for a diplomatic solution to the escalating situation though many believe that there is every likelihood that thy vote will favor Crimea being incorporated into Russia. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
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Crimea Goes To The Polls In Crucial Referendum
SIMFEROPOL, UKRAINE – MARCH 16: People in Lenin Square attend a pro Russian rally after a day of voting on March 16, 2014 in Simferopol, Ukraine. Crimean’s went to the polls today in a vote that which will decide whether the peninsular will break away from mainland Ukraine. The referendum, which has been dismissed as illegal by the West, follows the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych by pro-Western and nationalist protesters. As the standoff between the Russian military and Ukrainian forces continues in Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, world leaders are continuing toÊ push for a diplomatic solution to the escalating situation though many believe that there is every likelihood that thy vote will favor Crimea being incorporated into Russia. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
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UKRAINE-RUSSIA-UNREST-POLITICS-CRIMEA
Pro-Russian supporters gather in Simferopol’s Lenin Square on March 16, 2014 after exit polls showed that about 93 percent of voters in Ukraine’s Crimea region supported union with Russia. Crimeans voted overwhelmingly to join former political master Russia as tensions soared in the east of the splintered ex-Soviet nation amid the worst East-West crisis since the Cold War. AFP PHOTO/Filippo MONTEFORTE (Photo credit should read FILIPPO MONTEFORTE/AFP/Getty Images)
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Crimea Goes To The Polls In Crucial Referendum
SIMFEROPOL, UKRAINE – MARCH 16: People in Lenin Square attend a pro Russian rally after a day of voting on March 16, 2014 in Simferopol, Ukraine. Crimean’s went to the polls today in a vote that which will decide whether the peninsular will break away from mainland Ukraine. The referendum, which has been dismissed as illegal by the West, follows the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych by pro-Western and nationalist protesters. As the standoff between the Russian military and Ukrainian forces continues in Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, world leaders are continuing toÊ push for a diplomatic solution to the escalating situation though many believe that there is every likelihood that thy vote will favor Crimea being incorporated into Russia. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
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Crimea Goes To The Polls In Crucial Referendum
SIMFEROPOL, UKRAINE – MARCH 16: People in Lenin Square attend a pro Russian rally after a day of voting on March 16, 2014 in Simferopol, Ukraine. Crimean’s went to the polls today in a vote that which will decide whether the peninsular will break away from mainland Ukraine. The referendum, which has been dismissed as illegal by the West, follows the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych by pro-Western and nationalist protesters. As the standoff between the Russian military and Ukrainian forces continues in Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, world leaders are continuing toÊ push for a diplomatic solution to the escalating situation though many believe that there is every likelihood that thy vote will favor Crimea being incorporated into Russia. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
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UKRAINE-RUSSIA-POLITICS-CRISIS
Pro-Russian demonstrators hold Russian flags, as they gather in Simferopol’s Lenin Square on March 16, 2014. Crimeans voted overwhelmingly on March 16 in favour of joining former political master Russia as tensions soared in the east of the splintered ex-Soviet nation amid the worst East-West crisis since the Cold War. Exit polls cited by local officials showed 93 percent of the voters in favour of leaving Ukraine and joining Russia in the most serious redrawing of the map of Europe since Kosovo’s 2008 declaration of independence from Serbia. AFP PHOTO / FILIPPO MONTEFORTE (Photo credit should read FILIPPO MONTEFORTE/AFP/Getty Images)
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Crimea Goes To The Polls In Crucial Referendum
SIMFEROPOL, UKRAINE – MARCH 16: Election staff begin the count at a polling station after a day of voting on March 16, 2014 in Bachchisaray, Ukraine. Crimeans go to the polls today in a vote that which will decide whether the peninsular will break away from mainland Ukraine. The referendum, which has been dismissed as illegal by the West, follows the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych by pro-Western and nationalist protesters. As the standoff between the Russian military and Ukrainian forces continues in Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, world leaders are continuing to push for a diplomatic solution to the escalating situation though many believe that there is every likelihood that thy vote will favour Crimea being incorporated into Russia. (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)
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Crimea Goes To The Polls In Crucial Referendum
SIMFEROPOL, UKRAINE – MARCH 16: Election staff begin the count at a polling station after a day of voting on March 16, 2014 in Bachchisaray, Ukraine. Crimeans go to the polls today in a vote that which will decide whether the peninsular will break away from mainland Ukraine. The referendum, which has been dismissed as illegal by the West, follows the ousting of President Viktor Yanukovych by pro-Western and nationalist protesters. As the standoff between the Russian military and Ukrainian forces continues in Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, world leaders are continuing to push for a diplomatic solution to the escalating situation though many believe that there is every likelihood that thy vote will favour Crimea being incorporated into Russia. (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)
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